First Post-Debate Poll Shows Kamala Harris Breaking Out With Lead

Vice President Kamala Harris has widened her lead over former president Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after their first head-to-head debate.
The two-day poll shows Harris leading Trump 47% to 42% among registered voters, a five-point lead. This is slightly higher than her four-point lead in the same poll from August 21-28.
The margin of error in the Reuters survey was about three percentage points.
Harris and Trump faced off in a contentious presidential debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday, marking the first—and possibly only—time they will share the stage during this shortened campaign.
After the debate, both candidates released statements claiming victory. However, voters largely believed Harris came out on top, with 53% saying she won compared to 24% who felt Trump performed better​​.
This sentiment was echoed in a CNN flash poll, where about 60% of debate-watchers said Harris did better, and 40% thought Trump performed better. The pundit class largely agreed that Harris was the victor, with many noting how she repeatedly baited Trump during the debate.
According to Reuters, Harris “put Trump on the defensive with a stream of attacks on his fitness for office and his myriad legal woes.” Poll respondents seemed to agree, with 52% saying Trump stumbled during the match up​.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll is one of the first major national surveys to be conducted following the debate. It surveyed 1,690 U.S. adults, including 1,405 registered voters, over Wednesday and Thursday.
While national polls provide a snapshot of voter sentiment, the outcome will ultimately be determined by the electoral college, with battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin playing a pivotal role.
For Harris, this poll offers some relief after a setback before the debate. A New York Times/Siena College poll, ranked as the most accurate in the U.S., had shown her trailing Trump, despite the momentum she gained after securing the Democratic nomination in August.
The Times/Siena poll showed Trump with 48% support and Harris with 47%, giving the Republican a single point lead.
Polling averages showed Harris’ lead shrinking in the two weeks leading up to the debate, with her advantage dropping to 2.6 points from 3.6 on August 24, according to FiveThirtyEight. Meanwhile, recent polls from Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies and YouGov/The Economist have consistently shown the candidates tied.
Encouraged by her debate performance, the Harris campaign quickly challenged Trump to another showdown, with Fox News offering to host. The pair aren’t scheduled to have another debate, but both have expressed varying degrees of interest.
Harris’ team signed off on their “victory” news release after their event: “That’s what they saw tonight and what they should see at a second debate in October. Vice President Harris is ready for a second debate. Is Donald Trump?”
Trump has played both sides of the coin, flipping from claiming their loss is the cause for their desire for another debate to being open to the idea depending on which network hosted.
The vice presidential nominees, Ohio GOP Senator JD Vance and Minnesota Democratic Governor Tim Walz, will participate in a debate hosted by CBS News on October 1.
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